Weekly Market Commentary 9-29-2025

“Equity Market Melt-Up & Government Shutdown Risk”
See what we have to say about the following:

 

 

 

• Equity Market Melt-Up & Government Shutdown Risk:
  U.S. stocks rallied in September but face headwinds from a looming government shutdown and tariff concerns, though historical data suggests shutdowns have minimal long-term impact.

 

• Internal S&P 500 Trends Are Weakening:
  Overbought conditions and weakening breadth, especially in tech, indicate the market’s recent rally may be losing momentum.

 

• Don’t Fight the Fed & Seasonal Strength:
  The Fed’s rate cut and historical trends point to favorable conditions for equities heading into a seasonally strong fourth quarter.

 

• STAAC Commentary & Asset Allocation:
  STAAC remains tactically neutral on equities, favoring growth, large caps, and select sectors while maintaining a balanced fixed-income stance.